Professional Horse Racing

download-5Having been a professional gambler I can declare from experience that horse racing and stock market trading have many, many similarities.

For a start a lot of people lose at horse racing simply because they have no idea what they are up against and they use techniques that are absurdly naïve. That’s like using a trading system to trade based on nothing more than a couple of ‘indicators’…Yet some keep insisting that’s the best way to make money.

It really takes a lot of skill to be able to read a form book and rate each individual horses chances and then extract a living from it. This is a bit like fundamental analysis. Some say that’s a good way to make money.

Smaller stables often cannot cover the cost of keeping a race horse with the flimsy rewards from winning the odd race every once in a while, so they aim to get a horse in top form and bet that it will overturn the formbook. That’s much like trading on inside information. Again some say that’s a very good way to make money!

Others insist on backing winning trainers who have already proven excellent records at particular race courses. That’s like following executive director buys when they have a record of buying large amounts of their own company stock prior to quarterly market updates and consistently making a boatful of moolah.  And again some say that’s a good way to make money…

Even others use computers and develop algorithms that scan through huge volumes of data to discover clues and discrepancies that manual analysis cannot compete with.  This is just like what the banks of today do with quants developing modelling data. And yet again some believe that’s the best way to make money!!

Some insist that money management is the key because achieving a good winning percentage is impossible, they claim. Yet again some insist that’s the best way to make money trading the stock markets.

Some bet using trading or horse betting systems, often designed by someone who makes their living designing and selling systems. You just have to look at the championships: Some say that’s the best way to make money.

Some bet using a DOM looking for weight of money movements that allow scalp trading. The dome was developed from the financial markets and looks much like ours. You can even ‘green’ the bet taking both sides so you can’t lose. Again some say that’s the best way to make money.

There are other who use arbitrage methods trading the spread between two horses. Some believe that’s the best way to make money because profits are guaranteed.

I could go on all day with this rant, but if I had to select two characteristics that are most common between the average horse punter and the average trader, they would be…

  1. They paid a foolishly low price in terms of research and organised study whilst dreaming of making lots of monies!
  2. They have absurd ideas about what instruments work and don’t work, not understanding that  it is not the tool that’s the problem but themselves. All the tools work.

Betting on horses does not have to be like going to the casino. It does not have to be a zero-sum game.  There are many strategies and tactics that can put the odds in your favour. But if your strategy is basic, you’ll play it as a zero-sum game and you are vulnerable to compound probabilities that given time probably will destroy your bank.

Likewise stock market trading is not a zero-sum game and there is no reason for it to be a gamble if you know how to properly read the market. You can decide the best time to enter the market and if it doesn’t perform as you expected you can exit close to intact. If you don’t understand how to read the market and play safe then given time, your emotions and stupidity will destroy your account. Such is the nature of gambling.

Once you understand this, you can meet traders and understand who really is a trader, what’s behind their strategy and who is nothing more than a gambler.  I’d say you would be lucky to find more than 10% that are true traders.